2027 · Tourism and hospitality

Three ripples heading for tourism and hospitality in 2027

If you work in tourism, a hotel, a venue or a holiday park, there are three things I'd keep an eye on in 2027. For each one I've said what it sets off after it, and one thing you could do about it now.

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Thirty years of foresight. Thousands of clients, 2,800+ keynotes and workshops, 160 industries, 25 countries, and heard by more than a million people a year, on stage and in the media.

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“A thought provoking and practical session that gave our industry a useful framework for considering not only what is changing, but what those changes may trigger next.”

Leanne Weier, Manager Client Services, Civil Contractors Federation Queensland, 2026 State Conference

What I mean by a ripple

The first ripple is where everyone looks

When something changes, it sets off ripples, like a stone dropped in a pond, and the first ring is the one everybody sees.

The first rippleThe first ripple is what happens straight away, and since that's where everybody's looking, that's where everybody reacts.
The ripple after itThe next one is the consequence of the consequence, and it can turn up months later feeling like it has nothing to do with what started it.
Your immediate futureAnd then there's the one thing you can do about it now, while the change is still small.

For each of these three I've followed the change a bit further than usual, past the first ripple, and finished with something you could do about it now.

The three I'd watch for tourism and hospitality

The long holiday has become lots of short ones

Back in 2013 I said on ABC radio that we'd take ten short breaks a year instead of one four-week chunk.

The first ripple

People are still going away, just closer, for less time and more often. In the June quarter of 2026, Australians took 74.2 million day trips, up 8 per cent on the year before, while overnight trips fell 2 per cent.

The ripple after it

The money is moving to midweek, to day trips and to the quieter months, but minimum stays, rosters and leases were written for the long summer stay and the busy weekend. It looks like a margin problem, but what's really going on is that the money now turns up on different days from your costs.

Your immediate future

I'd pull 12 months of bookings or covers by day of the week and length of stay, and lay them over your roster and your minimum-stay rules. Then change one rule for a month as a test, like dropping a two-night minimum midweek, and see what happens.

I first said it in Future of Tourism, on ABC radio (May 2013).

The crowd is the point

As I put it in September, online didn't kill the shops, it killed the errand, and people still turn up for anything worth getting off the couch for. In our cities, the business district is turning into what I call a central leisure district.

The first ripple

There are fewer weekday suits around and more people heading in to eat, drink and gather, because the spectacle is the excuse and the gathering is the point.

The ripple after it

A venue can be full and still not get paid for it, though. A venue can end up as the showroom, the room where people gather while the booking or the spend goes to a platform somewhere else. And a big event lifts a host city but stretches staff and beds just when everyone wants them, which is worth thinking about with the Men's Rugby World Cup in seven Australian cities from 1 October to 13 November 2027.

Your immediate future

I'd write one sentence on why someone would get off the couch and come to you, and it can't be "our people". Read it to five regulars or guests, and if it doesn't land, that's your first job for 2027.

I wrote about this in She Is Not the Person She Is Before She Walks In (September 2026) and The Future of Hotels (February 2025).

Who teaches the new starter to close up alone?

In 2024 I wrote about a hotel night audit that used to take one person four hours, and now takes 14 minutes.

The first ripple

Software now does a lot of the routine back-of-house work, like the night audit, the rosters and the first reply to a booking enquiry, and that frees good people up for guests.

The ripple after it

Those routine jobs were how juniors learned the business, though, and the supervisors who taught them are being thinned out at the same time. Nobody records the teaching that disappears, so it shows up about three years later, as a shift with nobody who can run the place on their own.

Your immediate future

For each new starter, I'd write down by name who'll teach them to open and close on their own, and put that time on the roster.

I wrote about this in AI in Hospitality: Friend or Foe (April 2024) and The Class of 2030 Hasn't Started (September 2026).

If you'd like to go further

Five ways to take this further

The cover of Before the Year Turns by Morris Misel

My year-end guide, Before the Year Turns

Nine chapters and thirteen worksheets that take you from this year into 2027 and finish with your own immediate futures, the first steps you'll take. The bonus at the back is my year ahead, in ripples.

One copy is A$39, a PDF you read on screen or print.

See the guide

Copies for your team or your members

Two to five copies are A$27 each, and the price per copy falls at every step, down to A$9 each for more than 200. Your organisation's name goes inside every copy at no charge.

Copies for a team or clients

A free online session, Thursday 19 November

From 11 to 11.45 am AEDT we'll look back at what 2026 set off and ahead to what 2027 is asking of us. Come along, or pass it on to your team.

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Your conference, offsite or planning day

Talk to me about your conference, offsite or planning day. I give keynotes and run workshops, online or in person, and this is the thinking I'd bring to the room.

Email memorris@morrisfuturist.com

Or just keep in touch: my Tuesday email is a short note from me each week on what's coming.

Questions people ask

What should tourism and hospitality operators plan for over the next two years?

The long holiday has turned into lots of short breaks, with Australians taking 74.2 million day trips in the June quarter of 2026, up 8 per cent on the year before, while overnight trips fell 2 per cent. A venue can be full and still not make money, and the Men's Rugby World Cup, from 1 October to 13 November 2027, will test that for a lot of operators. The routine jobs that taught new starters are going to software too.

How should we plan around changing guest expectations and operating costs?

Minimum stays, rosters and leases were written for the long summer stay and the busy weekend, and the money now turns up on different days from your costs. I'd pull 12 months of bookings or covers by day of the week and length of stay and lay them over your roster and minimum-stay rules. Then you could try changing one rule for a month, say allowing single-night bookings midweek, and see how it goes.

Where does AI fit in a hotel or venue day to day?

Software now does a lot of the routine back-of-house work, like the night audit, the rosters and the first reply to a booking enquiry. In 2024 I wrote about a hotel night audit that used to take one person four hours and now takes 14 minutes, which frees good people up for guests. Those routine jobs were also how juniors learned the business, so for each new starter I'd write down by name who's going to teach them to open and close on their own.

What decisions should a hospitality leadership workshop settle?

A workshop is a good place to work out why someone would leave the couch to come and see you, which rule to test for a month, and who's going to teach each new starter to run the place on their own. My planning day runs from half a day to two days, with a follow-up a month later and the guide for everyone. Or you could start with the free online session on Thursday 19 November, from 11 to 11.45 am AEDT.

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Morris Misel

Foresight Strategist · Business Futurist · Keynote Speaker
Chair & Industry Fellow, Griffith University Inclusive Futures · Member, G100 Einstein Global Future Think Tank · Top Global and APAC Voices 2026