2027 · Education

Three ripples heading for education in 2027

If you work in a school, a TAFE, a university or a training business, there are three things I'd keep an eye on in 2027. For each one I've said what it sets off after it, and one thing you could do about it now.

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Thirty years of foresight. Thousands of clients, 2,800+ keynotes and workshops, 160 industries, 25 countries, and heard by more than a million people a year, on stage and in the media.

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“A thought provoking and practical session that gave our industry a useful framework for considering not only what is changing, but what those changes may trigger next.”

Leanne Weier, Manager Client Services, Civil Contractors Federation Queensland, 2026 State Conference

What I mean by a ripple

The first ripple is where everyone looks

When something changes, it sets off ripples, like a stone dropped in a pond, and the first ring is the one everybody sees.

The first rippleThe first ripple is what happens straight away, and since that's where everybody's looking, that's where everybody reacts.
The ripple after itThe next one is the consequence of the consequence, and it can turn up months later feeling like it has nothing to do with what started it.
Your immediate futureAnd then there's the one thing you can do about it now, while the change is still small.

For each of these three I've followed the change a bit further than usual, past the first ripple, and finished with something you could do about it now.

The three I'd watch for education

The person who teaches is leaving before the learner arrives

Placements, apprenticeships and graduate years are all still there on paper, but fewer of the people inside them have the time to teach.

The first ripple

Machines and software now do a lot of the routine first-year work, and that work was how people learned a trade or a profession on the job. At the same time, cuts to middle management are taking out the people who used to teach them.

The ripple after it

So a learner finishes with you qualified, turns up at a workplace that hasn't got the time to make them competent, and the course ends up carrying the blame for a gap it didn't create. The number of people starting a trade fell 4.2 per cent in the year to 31 December 2025, the third yearly fall in a row, though the latest quarters have picked up.

Your immediate future

I'd start by going through the placement and work-experience partners you send learners to, and writing down who actually teaches them at each one. Where you can't put a name to someone, give that partner a call.

I wrote about this in The Class of 2030 Hasn't Started (September 2026) and We Didn't Just Automate the Jobs. We Removed the Years. (June 2026).

The calculator moment, all over again

I remember the uproar when I brought a calculator into a maths class in the late 1970s. AI is going the way the calculator went, and it's quietly becoming ordinary.

The first ripple

If a student turns in an essay, a report or a worked answer these days, it doesn't tell you on its own what they can actually do.

The ripple after it

I think the worry moves on to trust, because employers and parents start asking what a grade or a certificate really proves. The places that can show how the learning happened, through the drafts, the chats and the choices made along the way, end up with the qualifications people believe.

Your immediate future

I'd pick one assessment running this term and ask what you'd still learn about a student if they'd used AI for the whole thing. If it's not much, add one step they do with you in the room, like a short chat or a draft with a reason for each change.

I wrote about this in The Future of Education: Balancing AI and Human Ingenuity (August 2024).

The question changes to "what do you want to solve?"

Work is being broken into tasks and shared out between people, machines and AI, a mix I call HUMAND, and that changes what a qualification is for.

The first ripple

Learners are already finding their way around the fixed pathways, through short courses, microcredentials and learning on the job, because a job title tells them less and less about the work they'll actually do.

The ripple after it

I think people will keep coming back to learn all through their working lives, so the thing a school, TAFE or university gets to keep is the relationship. And the parents who were told to pick something safe will need the same chat as their children.

Your immediate future

At your next open day, careers chat or course talk, I'd try asking "What do you want to solve?" instead of "What do you want to be?", and listen to how the answers change.

I wrote about this in Majoring in Obsolescence (July 2025).

If you'd like to go further

Five ways to take this further

The cover of Before the Year Turns by Morris Misel

My year-end guide, Before the Year Turns

Nine chapters and thirteen worksheets that take you from this year into 2027 and finish with your own immediate futures, the first steps you'll take. The bonus at the back is my year ahead, in ripples.

One copy is A$39, a PDF you read on screen or print.

See the guide

Copies for your staff or your school community

Two to five copies are A$27 each, and the price per copy falls at every step, down to A$9 each for more than 200. Your organisation's name goes inside every copy at no charge.

Copies for a team or clients

A free online session, Thursday 19 November

From 11 to 11.45 am AEDT we'll look back at what 2026 set off and ahead to what 2027 is asking of us. Come along, or pass it on to your team.

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Bring the decision you're sitting on and think it through with Mo, the companion I've built from my own way of looking ahead. Your first chat is free, with no sign-up. Twenty founding seats at A$60 a month close on Friday 27 November.

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Your conference, staff day or planning day

Talk to me about your conference, offsite, staff day or planning day. I give keynotes and run workshops, online or in person, and this is the thinking I'd bring to the room.

Email memorris@morrisfuturist.com

Or just keep in touch: my Tuesday email is a short note from me each week on what's coming.

More from me on education

Questions people ask

What should a principal put on the school's 12-to-24-month planning agenda?

The people who used to teach newcomers are leaving before the learners arrive, as machines take the routine first-year work and middle management thins out. AI is going the way the calculator went, which makes you ask what a grade or a certificate proves, and learners are finding their own way around fixed pathways, so the question becomes "What do you want to solve?"

How can we prepare staff for AI while protecting learning and human judgement?

I'd pick one assessment running this term and ask what you'd still learn about a student if they'd used AI for the whole thing. If the answer isn't much, you could add one step they do with you in the room, like a short chat or a draft with a reason for each change. I think the schools that can show how the learning happened are the ones whose qualifications people will keep believing, and copies of my year-end guide for your staff start at A$27 each for two to five.

Which changes in work should influence our careers guidance now?

Work is being broken into tasks and shared out between people, machines and AI, a mix I call HUMAND, and that changes what a qualification is for. A job title tells learners less and less about the work they'll do, so they're finding their way through short courses, microcredentials and learning on the job. At an open day or a careers chat, try asking "What do you want to solve?" as well as "What do you want to be?" and see how the answers go.

What should a school leadership workshop actually leave you with?

I'd like you to leave with a few things you can get going on straight away. On this page that's going through your placement partners to find out who actually teaches learners at each one, and adding a step to one assessment that the student does with you in the room. My planning day works out what next year looks like for you and what to start now, with a follow-up a month later and the guide for everyone, and you can try the thinking first at the free online session on Thursday 19 November.

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Morris Misel

Foresight Strategist · Business Futurist · Keynote Speaker
Chair & Industry Fellow, Griffith University Inclusive Futures · Member, G100 Einstein Global Future Think Tank · Top Global and APAC Voices 2026