2027 · Agriculture and food

Three ripples heading for agriculture and food in 2027

If you work in farming, growing, agribusiness or food, there are three things I'd keep an eye on in 2027. For each one I've said what it sets off after it, and one thing you could do about it now.

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Thirty years of foresight. Thousands of clients, 2,800+ keynotes and workshops, 160 industries, 25 countries, and heard by more than a million people a year, on stage and in the media.

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“A thought provoking and practical session that gave our industry a useful framework for considering not only what is changing, but what those changes may trigger next.”

Leanne Weier, Manager Client Services, Civil Contractors Federation Queensland, 2026 State Conference

What I mean by a ripple

The first ripple is where everyone looks

When something changes, it sets off ripples, like a stone dropped in a pond, and the first ring is the one everybody sees.

The first rippleThe first ripple is what happens straight away, and since that's where everybody's looking, that's where everybody reacts.
The ripple after itThe next one is the consequence of the consequence, and it can turn up months later feeling like it has nothing to do with what started it.
Your immediate futureAnd then there's the one thing you can do about it now, while the change is still small.

For each of these three I've followed the change a bit further than usual, past the first ripple, and finished with something you could do about it now.

The three I'd watch for agriculture and food

The headline is overseas. The bill is in the shed.

Back in March I said that events that seem a long way off begin shaping the operating conditions of businesses thousands of kilometres away, and on a farm that mostly means fertiliser and fuel.

The first ripple

So a cost that gets decided on the other side of the world ends up landing in your shed. ABARES expects the value of farm production to fall 5 per cent in 2026-27, to $99.4 billion, and average broadacre farm profit to fall 39 per cent, with lower revenue and continued high costs, though that's still above the 10-year average.

The ripple after it

When costs are decided overseas, the forecasters stop agreeing, and the call lands on whoever has to act anyway, which is you, at planting time.

Your immediate future

I'd write down the three costs that set your margin this season and where in the world each one is decided. Then put a low and a high figure against each, and the sign that would tell you to move early.

I wrote about this in When Headlines Become Operating Conditions (March 2026) and Same Data, Three Directions (August 2026).

The pressure came first. The machines came later.

On ABC radio in 2017 I said farmers were looking for alternatives to human labour as much as they'd love to employ people, because they couldn't find them.

The first ripple

Robots and automation are arriving on farms where the people already weren't, taking on the routine work nobody could be found to do.

The ripple after it

That routine work was how new people learned the job, though, and the person who taught them is retiring, so nobody counts the teaching until it's gone. Farm work keeps becoming a career of choice, but now it needs people who can run, fix and look after the machines, and fewer are coming through.

Your immediate future

I'd write down the work you can't staff, and next to each job, who's teaching the next person to do it.

I wrote about this in Some of 2027 Is Already Sitting in Your Diary (October 2026).

Your biggest buyer will ask you to prove it

Back in 2017 I wrote that I'd pushed hard for branding fruit, veg and live produce, so the farmer's story made it into the marketing, and in 2027 that story turns into something you'll be asked to show.

The first ripple

The biggest buyers are already reporting, and their supply-chain figures come next. From 1 July 2027 the third and last, smaller group joins them.

The ripple after it

Proof is turning into part of what you sell, so a grower who can show where it came from and how it was grown is the easy supplier to keep, and one who can't gets described, compared and swapped for whoever costs less or is closer. Your story and the care you put into your produce are the parts a buyer can't get from the next supplier.

Your immediate future

I'd ask your biggest buyer, "What will you need from us by the middle of 2027 that you don't ask for now?", and then tick the things you could already show them.

I wrote about trust becoming something you have to show in September 2026, in Reputation Was the Currency. Now It Can Be Forged.

If you'd like to go further

Five ways to take this further

The cover of Before the Year Turns by Morris Misel

My year-end guide, Before the Year Turns

Nine chapters and thirteen worksheets that take you from this year into 2027 and finish with your own immediate futures, the first steps you'll take. The bonus at the back is my year ahead, in ripples.

One copy is A$39, a PDF you read on screen or print.

See the guide

Copies for your team or your members

Two to five copies are A$27 each, and the price per copy falls at every step, down to A$9 each for more than 200. Your organisation's name goes inside every copy at no charge.

Copies for a team or clients

A free online session, Thursday 19 November

From 11 to 11.45 am AEDT we'll look back at what 2026 set off and ahead to what 2027 is asking of us. Come along, or pass it on to your team.

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Bring the decision you're sitting on and think it through with Mo, the companion I've built from my own way of looking ahead. Your first chat is free, with no sign-up. Twenty founding seats at A$60 a month close on Friday 27 November.

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Your conference, field day or planning day

Talk to me about your conference, field day, offsite or planning day. I give keynotes and run workshops, online or in person, and this is the thinking I'd bring to the room.

Email memorris@morrisfuturist.com

Or just keep in touch: my Tuesday email is a short note from me each week on what's coming.

More from me on agriculture and food

Questions people ask

What changes should an agriculture or food business plan for in the next 12 to 24 months?

Costs decided on the other side of the world end up landing in your shed, and ABARES expects the value of farm production to fall 5 per cent in 2026-27 and average broadacre farm profit to fall 39 per cent. Beyond that, automation is arriving on farms where the people already weren't, and your biggest buyer will ask you to prove where your produce came from. The page follows each one a ripple further and finishes with one thing you could do about it now.

How should we factor input costs, customer demand and supply disruption into our next annual plan?

I'd start by writing down the three costs that set your margin this season and where in the world each one is decided, with a low and a high figure against each and the sign that would tell you to move early. On the demand side, it's worth asking your biggest buyer what they'll need from you by the middle of 2027 that they don't ask for now, and ticking off what you could already show them. My year-end guide, Before the Year Turns, A$39, takes you through the same thinking at your own pace.

Where could AI fit on our farm or in our food business, and what should we test first?

I'd look first at the work you can't staff, because robots and automation are arriving on farms where the people already weren't, taking on routine work nobody could be found to do. That routine work was also how new people learned the job, so next to each task I'd note who's teaching the next person to do it. If you'd like to work through that with me, there's a planning day, or you can come along to the free online session on Thursday 19 November.

What should an agribusiness leadership team cover in a planning workshop?

I'd build it around the three ripples on this page: where your costs are decided, who runs and fixes the machines as the routine work moves to them, and what your biggest buyer will want you to show. My planning day runs from half a day to two days, works out what next year looks like for you and what to start now, and comes with a follow-up a month later and the guide for everyone. If you've got a conference, field day or offsite coming up, talk to me about it.

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Morris Misel

Foresight Strategist · Business Futurist · Keynote Speaker
Chair & Industry Fellow, Griffith University Inclusive Futures · Member, G100 Einstein Global Future Think Tank · Top Global and APAC Voices 2026